NFL Media chooses Bijan Robinson as potential MVP candidate

It’s July, and we’re simply days away from the beginning of the Atlanta Falcons’ 2025 Coaching Camp.

That is that golden stretch of the calendar when hope runs excessive throughout all 32 NFL groups. It’s additionally the right time to play somewhat projection recreation: Which participant may make a legit MVP case from every franchise?

NFL Media’s Eric Edholm not too long ago took a stab at that very query, naming one MVP-caliber expertise from each roster. Some picks have been apparent; nobody must argue on behalf of Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen. However others? They required a bit extra creativeness, particularly when the participant in query isn’t a quarterback.

Edholm didn’t draw back from the chilly reality: Quarterbacks run the MVP desk. Twelve straight MVPs have gone to QBs, and 49 of the 68 whole winners (72%) have performed the place. With the trendy passing recreation evolving the best way it has, it’s powerful to check a non-quarterback taking residence the award.

Living proof: Saquon Barkley.

Final season, Barkley racked up a staggering 2,283 yards from scrimmage — essentially the most since Christian McCaffrey’s historic 2019 season — together with 2,005 speeding yards, making him simply the ninth participant in NFL historical past to eclipse 2,000.

And he nonetheless completed third.

So with all that mentioned, in the case of the Falcons, you’d suppose the pure MVP decide could be second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr., proper?

Effectively…perhaps.

Positive, the world solely bought a three-game pattern of Penix, however these three begins have been electrical. They arrived simply as Kirk Cousins was placing collectively one of many roughest stretches of his profession. From Weeks 10–15, Cousins ranked thirtieth in adjusted EPA/play amongst 32 certified QBs (per rbsdm.com), forward of solely Cooper Rush and Drew Lock. He additionally ranked useless final in Adjusted Internet Yards per Try (ANY/A) amongst QBs with 100+ passes over that span.

Penix didn’t gentle up the stat sheet; he threw for 3 touchdowns and three picks, and went 1–2, however there was a jolt of life within the offense that had clearly been lacking.

Even so, Edholm bypassed the younger QB and as a substitute zeroed in on Atlanta’s true offensive centerpiece:

Bijan Robinson

2024 Stats: 1,887 whole yards (4th in NFL) • 1,456 speeding yards (third) • 304 carries • 4.8 YPC • 60.2% speeding success price (1st amongst RBs, third general)

Some will disagree with this selection, and on condition that solely three working backs have gained an MVP award since 2001 (and none since 2012), historical past is on my skeptics’ aspect. Take a look at Saquon Barkley final 12 months — he racked up 2,283 yards from scrimmage, registered simply the ninth 2,000-yard speeding season in league annals … and completed third within the balloting.

It’s going to take a Barkley-esque yardage whole and 20-plus TDs, I think, for Robinson to be a critical candidate. However I like his possibilities higher proper now than these of Michael Penix Jr., a proficient however unproven quarterback. He’s in all probability able to a Joe Burrow-like Yr 2, however anticipating that degree of particular person success is only a massive leap for me for the time being.

Now, historical past isn’t on Bijan’s aspect. Solely three working backs have gained MVP since 2001, and none since Adrian Peterson in 2012. Even Barkley’s historic marketing campaign couldn’t crack the highest two final 12 months.

But when anybody can do it, Bijan could be that man.

He’s already off to a blazing begin. By his first two years, he’s racked up 3,350 whole yards, rating fifteenth all-time in that class, and stays one of the full backs in soccer. He’s a lineman’s dream: powerful, decisive, inventive.

One in all my favourite elements of his movie? The variety of occasions he turned what ought to’ve been a run for no achieve or perhaps a loss, right into a burst of seven, or extra, yards.

And now, with Penix within the image, perhaps that ceiling will get even greater.

In fact, it’s price noting that Atlanta’s ultimate three video games final 12 months got here towards three of the six worst run defenses in soccer — defenses that allowed over 12.5% of all of the speeding yards within the league final season.

However right here’s the factor: the distinction between these video games and what the Falcons have been beneath Cousins provides us one thing we haven’t had shortly: hope.

Hope that beneath second-year OC Zac Robinson, this offense may lastly hit its stride.

Former Falcons legend Michael Turner sees it, too. Simply final month, he in contrast the Bijan–Allgeier tandem to the Chargers days of LaDainian Tomlinson and himself — a dynamic one-two punch constructed on complementary ability units and shared belief.

If Bijan is getting into that LT territory, and Penix continues to develop into his position, we may very well be speaking about greater than only a sturdy season.

We could be speaking about one thing particular.