How a lot assist would a first-round edge present for the Atlanta Falcons in 2025?
It’s a query many people are occupied with. Nonetheless, historical past says little or no.
The Falcons have seemingly missed the boat for touchdown a high EDGE rusher in free company, which Raheem Morris revealed he anticipated throughout his interview with staff reporters on the NFL Annual League Conferences. Morris famous that primarily based on the staff’s present state of affairs (Kirk Cousins debacle), they’d’ve been silly to not be ready to stroll out of free company with out marquee names.
Sure, Trey Hendrickson and Micah Parsons are technically nonetheless accessible by way of commerce, but when that is Morris’s message throughout these gamers’ interval of availability, it’s clear he’s not relying on touchdown both. So what’s he relying on?
Texas A&M’s Shemar Stewart and Nick Scourton haven’t but participated at their Professional Day.
Stewart ran a 4.59 40-yard sprint on the NFL Scouting Mix.
Scourton was seen speaking to Atlanta Falcons HC Raheem Morris. pic.twitter.com/IRylnow96Q
— Ronald Harrod Jr. (@ronharrodjr) March 27, 2025
Cease me for those who’ve heard this earlier than, however the Falcons have a younger group of defenders within the constructing that they imagine in. Ruke Orhorhoro, Brandon Dorlus, and Bralen Trice have been solid because the defenders on this recurring storyline. Nonetheless, Trice is the one one labeled as an EDGE defender and the one one who didn’t play in 2024—barely.
The staff wants extra edge expertise, and that’s why 2025 has been relentlessly mentioned as the 12 months the Falcons draft an edge rusher with their first-round choose.
However how a lot affect ought to the staff realistically rely on from a Day 1 rookie and Trice (a pseudo-rookie) in 2025? I compiled a desk utilizing PFF information displaying cross rush manufacturing from 1st, 2nd, and third spherical draft picks from the previous 5 years–rookie seasons solely. The information additionally separates all dropbacks from true cross units (eliminating performs that make the most of screens, play motion, or rollout ideas). The outcomes are as follows:
The sport isn’t performed on a spreadsheet, however the numbers can’t be ignored. Drafting a cross rusher is like investing in an index fund, the place on the spot gratification isn’t an consequence. The information makes just a few different apparent factors, the primary one being to draft a cross rusher on Day 1.
Manufacturing is relative. A season complete of 5 sacks is subpar in comparison with the perfect cross rushers within the league, however that’s the common return for high draft prospects. I anticipated first-round picks to be the most efficient rookie group. They have been the biggest group within the information pool (23), and Day 1 draft picks usually acquired extra taking part in time and alternatives than cross rushers taken on later days.
The hole from Day 1 to Day 2 was a foreseen consequence. Nonetheless, I didn’t anticipate second and third-round cross rushers to be statistically practically indistinguishable. Elements like over-drafting and overweighted information are current, however general, the information speaks to the issue rookies face when transitioning to the following degree. The much less proficient the participant, the tougher that transition might be, and this is likely one of the hardest positions to guage.
The hole between second-round and third-round edge rushers isn’t all that important, and these outcomes might additionally lead one to imagine that buying and selling up on Day 2 isn’t well worth the hassle.
Day 2 rookies are fortunate to see 100 cross rush snaps of their first 12 months, and people reps are priceless for rookies. Giving rookie cross rushers as a lot as doable is a precedence, however you possibly can’t overexpose them too early. Managing them is a fragile stability, which is why the perfect groups stockpile and draft edge rushers yearly. Defenses that may assault the quarterback constantly are continuously updating their queue with new cross rushers.
The Falcons have taken swings on Day 2 and Day 3 throughout Fontenot’s tenure, and their outcomes align with that considerably complacent philosophy. Atlanta can not hope to land a tier-one cross rusher in the event that they don’t pay the value. Bralen Trice shouldn’t be dismissed, however he shouldn’t have unrealistic expectations placed on him in his first 12 months of motion, both.
Drafting an edge rusher within the first spherical will at all times be the simplest technique to land an elite one, and it’s time to take a shot. Attempting to make a five-star meal out of five-dollar components has burned Fontenot 4 years in a row.
Rookie cross rushers will not be high-level producers; they’re, at greatest, items that may elevate a room and generate a spark in cross rush conditions. Rookie seasons like Jared Verse and Micah Parsons’ are statistical outliers, not life like benchmarks. Everybody in Atlanta ought to put together for a four-sack consequence, or worse, if the staff provides a cross rusher. Nonetheless, don’t let sack totals overshadow promising metrics and indicators (win %, complete pressures) that time towards the defender being heading in the right direction.
These statistical realities are why groups are intrigued by gamers like Mykel Williams and Shemar Stewart. The chances are that even essentially the most refined and polished-looking faculty cross rusher (Latui Latu) will want a 12 months to regulate earlier than turning into efficient, so why not take a shot on gamers who’re athletic outliers? Typically, you get Travon Walker; different instances, you get Tyree Wilson.
Build up this room will likely be a course of, however that course of gained’t really start till the Falcons have added a participant who generally is a foundational piece. The query is, can they discover that particular person on this 12 months’s NFL draft?
